Front Matter Page
Fiscal Affairs Department
Contents
Abstract
I. Introduction
II. Data: Expert Forecasts
A. Expected Bond Yield Spreads
B. Expected Macroeconomic Fundamentals
III. Methodology
IV. Results
A. Baseline Results
B. Debt limit and Fiscal Space
C. Additional Results
D. Sub-Sample Analysis
V. Conclusion
Tables and Figures
Appendix
A. Description of variables
B. Forecasters in Italy, France and the U.K
C. Calculation of the forecasted overall balance (as a ratio of GDP)
References
Tables
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics
Table 2. Panel Baseline Regressions
Table 3. Panel with Realized Spreads
Table 4. Panel Using Fiscal Space
Table 5. Panel Including Global Risk Variables
Table 6. Panel Using Primary Surplus
Table 7. Panel Using Realized Spreads as Explanatory Variables
Table 8. Panel Using Data in Levels
Table 9. Panel with Different Period Subsamples
Figures
Figure 1. Realized and Market Forecast Distribution of Bond Spreads
Figure 2. Realized and Market Forecast Distribution of Fiscal Balance