Front Matter Page
Fiscal Affairs Department
Content
Abstract
I. Introduction
II. Literature Review
A. Theoretical Framework
B. Empirical Studies
III. Methodology and Data
A. Identification of Shifts
B. Factors Underlying the Shifts
C. Data
IV. Empirical Analysis
A. Timing and Direction of Shifts
B. What Affects the Probability of the Shifts?
C. Robustness Analysis
D. Interaction Analysis and the Role of Shocks
V. Conclusion
References
Tables
1. Unit Root Tests
2. Johansen-Juselius Cointegration Tests
3. Testing for Regime Shifts in Cointegration: Gregory-Hansen
4a. Nonlinear Estimation: Vertical Shift
4b. Nonlinear Estimation: Vertical Shift with Slope Coefficient
5. Identifying Shifts in the Beveridge Curve
6. Labor Market Characteristics
7. Fiscal and Labor Market Policies
8. Robustness—Labor Market Characteristics
9. Robustness—Fiscal and Labor Market Policies
10. The Role of Shocks and Labor Market Institutions in the Matching Process
Figures
1. OECD Average Unemployment and Vacancies in the Great Recession
2. Beveridge Curves (I)
3. Beveridge Curves (II)
Appendices
A
B