Front Matter
  • 1, International Monetary Fund
  • | 2, International Monetary Fund

Front Matter Page

Research Department


  • Abstract

  • I. Introduction

  • II. Commodity Terms-of-Trade Windfalls: Concepts and Channels

  • III. Commodity Terms-Of-Trade Windfalls: Empirical Evidence

  • IV. Sectoral Reallocation during Commodity Booms: Case Studies

  • V. Conclusions

  • References

  • Tables

  • Table 1. Commodity-Exporting Emerging Market and Developing Economies

  • Table 2. Sample of Commodity Exporters Used in the Local Projection Method Estimations, 1960–2007

  • Table 3. Country Coverage for Key Macroeconomic Variables in the Local Projection Method Estimations

  • Figures

  • Figure 1. World Commodity Prices, 1960–2015

  • Figure 2. Average Growth in Commodity-Exporting versus Other Emerging Market and Developing Economies, 1990–2015

  • Figure 3. Real Income, Output, and Domestic Demand, 2000–10

  • Figure 4. Model Simulations: Macroeconomic Effects of a Commodity Boom

  • Figure 5. Consumption Dynamics with Overly Optimistic Commodity Price Expectations

  • Figure 6. Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads and the Commodity Terms of Trade

  • Figure 7. Identification of Cycles in the Commodity Terms of Trade: Three Country Examples

  • Figure 8. Characteristics, Amplitudes, and Durations of Cycles

  • Figure 9. Event Studies: Average Annual Growth Rates of Key Macroeconomic Variables during Commodity Terms-of-Trade Upswings and Downswings

  • Figure 10. Variation in Average Output Growth between Upswings and Downswings The Role of Policy Frameworks and Financial Depth

  • Figure 11. Commodity Intensity, Policy Frameworks, and Financial Depth: Commodity-Exporting Emerging Markets versus LIDCs

  • Figure 12. Average Differences in Real Growth Rates between Upswings and Downswings

  • Figure 13. Most Recent Upswing: Average Real Growth Rates during Upswings and Downswings

  • Figure 14. Policies during the 2000s Boom

  • Figure 15. Macroeconomic Variables in the Aftermath of Commodity Terms-of-Trade Shocks

  • Figure 16. Output in the Aftermath of Commodity Terms-of-Trade Shocks: Role of Income Level and Type of Commodity

  • Figure 17. Sectoral Composition of Output

  • Figure 18. Commodity Booms and Macroeconomic Indicators in Australia, Canada, and Chile

  • Figure 19. Growth of Capital and Labor by Sector: Boom versus Preboom Periods

  • Figure 20. Evolution of Activity in Nontradables Relative to Manufacturing, Commodity Exporters Relative to Commodity Importers

Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom
Author: Aqib Aslam, Samya Beidas-Strom, Mr. Rudolfs Bems, Oya Celasun, and Zsoka Koczan