IMF Working Papers Volume 2016 Issue 027: Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom (2016)

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Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

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Aqib Aslam

Aqib Aslamnull

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Samya Beidas-Strom

Samya Beidas-Strom
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Mr. Rudolfs Bems

Mr. Rudolfs Bems
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Oya Celasun

Oya Celasunnull

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Zsoka Koczan

Zsoka Koczan
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Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2016: Issue 027

Publication Date:: 15 Feb 2016

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498338158.001

ISBN:: 9781498338158

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 49

Keywords:: WP; commodity terms of trade; commodity exporter; price boom; exchange rate; Natural Resources; Potential Output; Resource Boom; Terms of Trade; terms-of-trade shock; commodity boom; commodity-exporting economy; commodity sector; commodity price boom; commodity price cycle; commodity cycle; total factor productivity; commodity terms-of-trade windfall; Commodity prices; Commodity booms; Total factor productivity; Global; East Asia

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Series:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2016: Issue 027

Language:: English

Publication Date:: 15 Feb 2016

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498338158.001

ISBN:: 9781498338158

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Pages:: 49

Keywords:: WP; commodity terms of trade; commodity exporter; price boom; exchange rate; Natural Resources; Potential Output; Resource Boom; Terms of Trade; terms-of-trade shock; commodity boom; commodity-exporting economy; commodity sector; commodity price boom; commodity price cycle; commodity cycle; total factor productivity; commodity terms-of-trade windfall; Commodity prices; Commodity booms; Total factor productivity; Global; East Asia

Legal-disclaimer:: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

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Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 2¼ percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

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IMF Working Papers

ISSN:: 1018-5941

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

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