Back Matter
  • 1 https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396, International Monetary Fund

References

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1

We are grateful to John Nelmes for guidance and many helpful discussions.

2

The exchange rate trading band vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar was widened to +/− 3 percent from +/− 1 percent in August 2015.

3

The forward-looking expectations assumption is relaxed here as some forms of backward-looking expectations are allowed in determining the exchange rate.

4

Berg, Karam, and Laxton (2006a/b) discuss how incomplete forward-looking expectations provide for realistic dynamics.

5

Since our model assumes serially correlated errors in exchange rate expectations (δz < 1), there is a role for monetary policy to respond directly to exchange rate changes.

7

The only positive weights on the weighting matrix are the ones related to output gap, inflation and exchange rate.

8

Results are presented in deviations, i.e., movements in the variables in relation to their long-run values.

9

Note that with our definition of the exchange rate, a decline is an appreciation of the dong.

10

The sum of exports and imports is about 160 percent of GDP.

11

In the data, a one standard deviation move in U.S. rates is 0.21 percentage points.

A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam
Author: Allan Dizioli and Jochen M. Schmittmann