Front Matter Page
Fiscal Affairs Department
Contents
Abstract
I. Introduction
II. Data and Methodology
A. Data
B. Methodology
III. Basic Features of Public Debt Cycles
A. Frequency of Public Debt Cycles
B. Duration, Amplitude, and Slope of Public Debt Cycles
C. Determinants of Public Debt Dynamics around Expansion/Contraction Episodes
IV. Duration Analysis
A. Baseline Specification
B. Robustness Checks
V. Conclusions
References
Tables
1. List of Countries
2. Variables and Data Sources
3. Characteristics of Debt Expansions and Contractions
4. Descriptive Statistics of Determinants of Public Debt Dynamics
5. Baseline Results
6. Robustness Global Factors
7. Robustness Openness Indicators
8. Robustness to Political Factors
9. Robustness to Banking Crises
10. Robustness to the Amplitude of Financial Cycles
Figures
1. Length of the Cycles and their Amplitude
2. Dynamics of Debt and its Determinants around Expansion Episodes
3. Dynamics of Debt and its Determinants around Contraction Episodes
4. Non-Parametric Impact of Financial Cycles on the Duration of Debt Expansions and Contractions