Cover IMF Working Papers
Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council
Author: Mr. Alberto Behar
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2015: Issue 191
Language:
English
Publication Date:
18 Aug 2015
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513573885.001
ISBN:
9781513573885
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
34
Keywords:
WP; labor market; Employment Elasticities; Labor Market Adjustment Costs; GCC; Gulf Cooperation Council; Inclusive Growth; GCC country; employment growth; GCC employment; GCC labor market structure; employment response; growth forecast; employment elasticity; GCC elasticity; employment projection; employment-growth relationship; employment rigidity; GCC aggregate; Employment; Labor markets; Public employment; Labor force; Public sector; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia; North Africa; East Africa; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to non-oil GDP in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for GCC nationals and expatriates using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. Our results indicate that the employment response is lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7 or less. The elasticity is almost unity for expatriates in the long run and 0.35 in the short run. We interpret low elasticities as indirect evidence of labor market adjustment costs, which could include hiring and firing rigidities, skills mismatches, and reluctance to accept private sector jobs. Forecasts suggest that, absent measures to reduce adjustment costs, the private sector will only be able to absorb a small portion of nationals entering the labor force.
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund