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Growth: Now and Forever?
Author:
Giang Honull

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and
Mr. Paolo Mauro
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2014: Issue 117
Language:
English
Publication Date:
02 Jul 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498309820.001
ISBN:
9781498309820
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
27
Keywords:
WP; economic growth; country; growth rate; economic growth forecast; growth forecast; optimism bias; forecast horizon; debt sustainability analysis; World Bank DSA exercise; IMF engagement status; teams' baseline forecast; per capita income; IMF definition; standard deviation; Personal income; Output gap; Western Hemisphere; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2014: Issue 117