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Economic Impact of Selected Conflicts in the Middle East: What Can We Learn from the Past?
Author:
Miss Randa Sab
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2014: Issue 100
Language:
English
Publication Date:
11 Jun 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781498310895.001
ISBN:
9781498310895
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
32
Keywords:
WP; Iraq; Kuwait; financial system; Lebanon; Conflict; post-conflict economic recovery; Middle East; debt settlement program; excess demand; inflation in Kuwait; free market; invasion of Iraq; Lebanon's banking system; country-case study methodology; Inflation; Current account deficits; Financial sector; International reserves; Exchange rates; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Using narrative-based country-case studies, war episodes in the Middle East were examined to assess their economic impact on conflict and neighboring economies. The paper found that conflicts led to a contraction in growth, higher inflation, large fiscal and current account deficits, loss of reserves, and a weakened financial system. Post-conflict recovery depended on the economic and institutional development of the country, economic structure, duration of the war, international engagement, and prevailing security conditions. The net economic impact on neighboring countries varied according to their initial economic conditions, number and income level of refugees they hosted, economic integration, and external assistance.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund