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Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia
Author: Mr. Alberto Behar and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2014: Issue 080
Language:
English
Publication Date:
09 May 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001
ISBN:
9781484380796
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
31
Keywords:
WP; oil exporter; trading partner; oil importer; export loss; goods export; services export; Gravity model; exports; spillovers; trade; Middle East; North Africa; Caucasus; Central Asia; growth shock; CCA oil importer; CCA oil exporter; MCD goods export; CCA country; export response; CCA export; Oil; Service exports; Oil exports; Oil prices; Europe; Global; Maghreb; Middle East and Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund