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Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Author:
Rahul Anand
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,
Mr. Kevin C Cheng
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,
Sidra Rehman
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Ms. Longmei Zhang
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2014: Issue 002
Language:
English
Publication Date:
13 Jan 2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484345726.001
ISBN:
9781484345726
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
26
Keywords:
WP; ASEAN economy; China; economy; trend growth; India; potential growth; total factor productivity; emerging Asia; dependency ratio; inflation picture; non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; production function; Capital accumulation; Inflation; Aging; Labor force participation; Asia and Pacific
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund