Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap
Author: Mr. Shekhar Aiyar, Mr. Romain A Duvalhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2775-7172, Mr. Damien Puy, Mr. Yiqun Wu, and Ms. Longmei Zhang
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2013: Issue 071
Language:
English
Publication Date:
20 Mar 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484330647.001
ISBN:
9781484330647
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
64
Keywords:
WP; economic growth; per capita income; simple average; growth; slowdown; middle income trap; Bayesian Model Averaging; rate of growth; physical capital; time series; relative frequency; middle-income economy; fertility rate; Income; Capital inflows; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Infrastructure; Regional integration; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (1.7 MB) Download Epub
The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as large sudden and sustained deviations from the growth path predicted by a basic conditional convergence framework. We then examine their determinants by means of probit regressions, looking into the role of institutions, demography, infrastructure, the macroeconomic environment, output structure and trade structure. Two variants of Bayesian Model Averaging are used as robustness checks. The results—including some that indeed speak to the special status of middle-income countries—are then used to derive policy implications, with a particular focus on Asian economies.
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund