Back Matter

VII. Appendix

A. Data Sources and Description

Quarterly Data 1999Q1–2011Q4

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Monthly Data 2003M1–2012M5

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1

We thank Catriona Purfield, Borja Gracia and Frank Lakwijk for helpful comments and discussions. We would also like to acknowledge the helpful comments provided by the Bulgarian National Bank and Ministry of Finance. We are grateful to Anja Baum for assisting with the threshold VAR estimation. All remaining errors are our own.

2

Industrial production growth and real GDP growth move together over time with a correlation of 0.4. Previous studies by the OECD have also found a close relationship between the cyclical profiles of the industrial production index and GDP for selected countries (OECD, 2002, 2006).

3

These are standard elasiticities used in the literature.

4

Adding inflation and interest rates to the specification did not affect the overall results.

Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria: Low But Still Relevant
Author: Mr. Dirk V Muir and Anke Weber