Front Matter Page
Western Hemisphere Department
Contents
I. Introduction
II. A Decade of Falling Public and External Debt, 2003–12
A. Fiscal sustainability
Pre-Lehman Period: 2003–08
Post-Lehman Period: 2009–12
B. External sustainability
Pre-Lehman Period: 2003–08
Post-Lehman Period: 2009–12
III. Methodological Approach
A. Public and External Debt Sustainability Analysis
Public Debt
External Debt Dynamics
B. Conditional Forecasting of Key Domestic Variables: a VAR approach
C. Sovereign Spreads Module
IV. Debt Dynamics Under Alternative Global Scenarios
A. Scenarios
Scenario 1: Temporary Financial Shock
Scenario 2: Temporary Real Shock
Scenario 3: A Protracted Global Slowdown
Scenario 4: A Tail Event
B. Key Results
Latin America’s overall picture
Country-specific results
V. Conclusions
References
Annexes
Tables
1. Key Global Assumptions under Alternative Scenarios
2. Key Domestic Policy Assumptions under Alternative Scenarios
Figures
1. Latin America: Fey Fiscal Indicators, 2002–12
2. Latin America. Key External Indicators, 2002–12
3. Factors Driving Public Debt Dynamics, 2003–12
4. Components of Primary Balance Dynamics, 1995–2012
5. Factors Driving External Debt Dynamics, 2003–12
6. Global Variables under Alternative Scenarios, 2003–17
7. Latin America. Factors Driving Public and External Debt Dynamics under Alternative Global Scenarios, 2003–17
8. Latin America. Public and External Debt under Alternative Scenarios and Policies, 2012–17
9. Key Fiscal Indicators under Different Scenarios, 2012–17
10. Key External Indicators under Different Scenarios, 2012–17