Cover IMF Working Papers
Buy Book in Print
External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America
Author:
Gustavo Adler
Search for other papers by Gustavo Adler in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
and
Mr. Sebastian Sosa
Search for other papers by Mr. Sebastian Sosa in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2013: Issue 027
Language:
English
Publication Date:
30 Jan 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475588835.001
ISBN:
9781475588835
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
51
Keywords:
WP; potential GDP; public debt; external debt; debt sustainability; Latin America; commodity revenue; sustainability indicator; public debt debt ratio; financing flow; debt trajectory; motion equation; debt level; debt motion equation; Fiscal stance; Debt sustainability analysis; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (3.1 MB) Download Epub
Highly favorable external conditions have helped Latin America strengthen its economic fundamentals over the last decade. But, has the region built enough buffers to guard itself from a weakening of the external environment? This paper addresses this question by developing a simple framework that integrates econometric estimates of the effect of global factors on key domestic variables that determine public and external debt dynamics, with the IMF‘s standard debt sustainability framework. Results suggest that, while some countries in the region are well placed to withstand moderate or even large shocks, many would benefit from having stronger buffers to be in a position to deploy countercyclical policies, especially under tail events. External sustainability, on the other hand, does not appear to be a source of concern for most countries.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund