Front Matter Page
Asia and Pacific Department
Contents
I. Introduction
II. The Recent Path of China’s External Imbalance
III. What Is Driving the Declining Surplus?
A. The Collapse in Global Demand
B. A Step Increase in Investment
C. The Role of Commodities and Capital Goods
D. The Terms of Trade
E. Exchange Rate Appreciation
F. Net Income Flows
G. Putting It All Together
IV. Policy Reform, Demographics, and Cost Pressures
A. Policy Reforms
B. Urbanization
C. Demographic Change
V. Empirical Analysis
VI. A Revised Outlook
VII. What Does This Revised Outlook for China’s Current Account Imply for the Path of Global Imbalances?
VIII. Conclusion
References