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Modeling with Limited Data: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia
Author:
Mr. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2012: Issue 096
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Apr 2012
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475502862.001
ISBN:
9781475502862
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
18
Keywords:
WP; math; Potential output; Cambodia; growth diagnostics; productivity gain; productivity improvement; export diversification; investment rate; productivity level; productivity term; Phillips curve; aggregate production function; saving rate; Productivity; Output gap; Total factor productivity; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund