Indicators of Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks—Focusing on the Medium and Long Run
Citation: IMF Working Papers 2012, 011; 10.5089/9781463931162.001.A001Sources: Bloomberg L.P.; IMF World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff estimates. Data are from September 2011.1/ I1 indicates the required primary balance that needs to be maintained from 2020-30 to reduce the debt ratio to illustrative targets by 2030 (in most cases gross debt-to-GDP ratio of 60 percent, or to stabilize at the end-2012 if below 60 percent; net debt targets for Australia, Canada, Japan (80 percent) and New Zealand. See Section II.B and Appendix C for methodological details.2/ Assumes a one percentage point lower real GDP growth in 2011-16 than in the WEO baseline projection.3/ Cumulative increase in interest bill starting in 2011. Shock assumes that the interest rate on new issuances is 100 basis points higher than in the baseline.4/ Based on probabilitiy distributions resulting from random shocks to key macroeconomic variables and fiscal response functions based on historical data (see Section II.B and Appendix E for methodological details).