Expected Public Debt Level and Dispersion by 2015 1/
|Historical behavior 2/||Structural balance rule 3/||Public debt targeting 4/|
|Expected||Sth. Dev.||CV||Expected||Sth. Dev.||CV||Expected||Sth. Dev.||CV|
|Antigua and Barbuda||160.4||42.3||0.26||120.9||18.0||0.15||114.3||11.0||0.10|
|St. Kitts and Nevis||205.3||19.9||0.10||174.7||12.7||0.07||170.7||19.7||0.12|
|St. Vincent and the Grenadines||115.0||15.7||0.14||105.2||6.5||0.06||94.9||4.3||0.05|
Public Debt and standard deviation of public debt are presented in percent of GDP. Calculated based on a Monte Carlo experiment with 2000 simulations. CV is the coefficient of variation, calculated as the standard deviation of the debt to GDP ratio divided by the mean.
Primary expenditure simulations based on the estimated VAR coefficients.
Primary expenditure simulations based on a structural primary balance with output gap elasticities of revenues and primary expenditures of 1 and 0, respectively.
Primary expenditure simulations based on the policy proposal in this paper. All parameters are set as in Table 2.