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Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence
Author:
Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa
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Mr. Prakash Loungani
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Mr. Herman O. Stekler null

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2011: Issue 125
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Jun 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455263424.001
ISBN:
9781455263424
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
41
Keywords:
WP; data set; Information rigidity; forecasts; recessions; crises; banking crisis; recession episode; recession year; possibility recession; banking crises episode; Banking crises; Rational expectations; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Vector autoregression; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Europe; Africa; Asia and Pacific
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries‘ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund