Front Matter Page
European and Research Departments
Authorized for distribution by Douglas Laxton and Zuzana Murgašová
Contents
Abstract
I. Introduction
II. Literature Review
III. Description of the Model
IV. Estimates of the Impact of Fiscal Consolidation
V. The Impact of 2011 Tightening
VI. Further Consolidation
VII. Conclusion
References
Tables
1. Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Real GDP by Instrument
2. Comparison of 1-Year Temporary Fiscal Multipliers
3. Present Value Multipliers
4. 2011 Budget Consolidation Measures by GIMF Instrument
Figures
1. Impact of 10-Year 1 Percent Improvement in Fiscal Balance on Real GDP
2. Impact of 1 Percent of GDP Cut in Government Consumption in Real GDP under Different Assumptions
3. Improvement in Fiscal Balance under 2011 Budget
4. Impact of 2011 Package on Real GDP and Inflation
5. Real GDP Components
6. Contributions to Real GDP Deviation from Baseline
7. Interest Rates
8. Exchange Rates
9. Current Account and Trade Balance
10. Real GDP and Policy Rate with and without Lower Bound on Policy Rate
11. Impact of 2011 Package on Real GDP under Different Credibility Assumptions
12. Impact of Additional Consolidation on Real GDP with Different Instruments
13. Impact of 2011 Package on Real GDP with Stepwise Increase in Credibility
Appendixes
I. Calibration Parameters
II. Detailed Estimates of Fiscal Multipliers
III. 2011 Consolidation Package