Cover IMF Working Papers
Buy Book in Print
New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time
Author:
Mr. Troy D Matheson
Search for other papers by Mr. Troy D Matheson in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2011: Issue 043
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Feb 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455218998.001
ISBN:
9781455218998
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
22
Keywords:
WP; real GDP
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (775 KB) Download Epub
We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle. In a recursive out-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that the indicators generally produce good GDP growth forecasts relative to a range of time series models.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund