Appendix I. Survival Analysis Model
Alesina, Alberto, and Silvia Ardagna, 1998, “Tales of Fiscal Contractions: Fiscal Adjustments: Why Can They Be Expansionary,” Economic Policy, 27, pp. 489–543.
Alesina, Alberto, Silvia Ardagna, Roberto Perotti, and Fabrizio Schiantarelli, 1999, “Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment,” NBER Working Paper, No. 7207.
Alesina, Alberto, Gerald D. Cohen, and Nouriel Roubini, 1992, “Macroeconomic Policies and Elections in OECD Democracies,” Economics and Politics, Vol. 4, pp. 1–30.
Alesina, Alberto, and Roberto Perotti, 1995, “Fiscal Expansion and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries,” Economic Policy, Vol. 21, pp. 205–48.
Alesina, Alberto., Perotti R., and Jose Tavares, 1998, “The Political Economy of Fiscal Adjustments,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 197–248.
Alesina, Alberto, and Silvia Ardagna, 2009, “Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending,” Paper presented at the Tax Policy and the Economy Conference.
Baldacci, Emanuele, Sanjeev Gupta, and Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2009, “How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises,” IMF Working Paper 09/160 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Baldacci, Emanuele, and Manmohan Kumar, “Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields,” IMF Working Paper 10/184 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Baunsgaard, Thomas, and Steven A. Symansky, 2009, “Automatic Fiscal Stabilizers,” IMF Staff Position Note, 09/23 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
Berg, Andrew, and Jeffrey Sachs, 1988, “Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance,” Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 29, pp. 271–306.
Bohn, Henning, 1995, “The Sustainability of Budget Deficits in a Stochastic Economy,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 27, No. 2, pp. 252–72.
Buti, Marco, and Paul van den Noord, 2003, “Discretionary Fiscal Policy and Elections: The Experience of the Early Years of EMU.” OECD Economics Department Working Paper, ECO/WKP (2003) pp. 5.