Front Matter Page
European Department
Authorized for distribution by Ashoka Mody
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Inventory Behavior
A. Stylized Facts
B. How Well Do Simple Inventory Models Fit the Data?
III. The Role of Inventories in Forecasting Output Growth
A. Time-Series Models for Output Growth
B. Forecast Performance
IV. Final Remarks
References
Tables
1. Inventory Investment and the Business Cycle
2. Basic Statistics
3. Inventory Model Scorecard
4. Explaining the Basic Stylized Facts of Inventory Behavior
5. Baseline Forecasting Performance, 2005Q1 through 2009Q4
6. Assessing the Information Content of Inventories in Forecasting Output Growth
7. To What Extent Does Setting to Zero the Forecast for Inventories Worsen Output Growth Forecasts?
Figures
1. Contributions to Growth, 2008Q1–2009Q4
2. Inventories in Germany, France, Italy, and the United States, 1991Q1– 2009Q4
3. Output Growth and Inventories, 1991–2009
Box
1. Two Simple Models of Inventories
Appendix
1. Data