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Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
Author:
International Monetary Fund
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2010: Issue 135
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Jun 2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455201181.001
ISBN:
9781455201181
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
33
Keywords:
WP; commodity price; exchange rate regime; inflation-output tradeoff; inflation terms; world inflation
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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Inflation followed a strikingly uniform pattern in all countries of the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia during the period 1996-2009, falling until about 2000 and then rising. International fuel prices do not help explain this pattern. This conclusion is robust even when different cross sections of countries are tested or when different regression variables are included. The pattern of inflation is explained mainly by past inflation, the strength of the US dollar, US inflation, and—depending on the subset of countries analyzed—monetary and exchange rate policies and nonfuel commodity prices.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2010: Issue 135