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Estimating Poland's Potential Output: A Production Function Approach
Author:
Mr. Natan P. Epstein
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Corrado Macchiarelli null

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2010: Issue 015
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Jan 2010
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451962093.001
ISBN:
9781451962093
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
21
Keywords:
WP; Production function; potential growth; output gap; NAIRU; production-function output-gap series; production function framework; Cobb-Douglas production function methodology; production-function methodology; unemployment gap; long-run unemployment rate estimate; Phillips Curve estimation; Unemployment rate; Potential output; Employment; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund