Front Matter

Front Matter Page

Research Department

Authorized for distribution by Jörg Decressin


  • I. Introduction

  • II. Outline of Theory

    • A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth

    • B. Constructing Confidence Intervals

  • III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information

    • A. Survey-based Measures

    • B. Market-based Measures

  • IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth

    • A. Choice of Risk Factors

    • B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters

    • C. Constructing the Fan Chart

    • D. Interpreting the Results

  • V. Conclusions

  • References

  • Box

  • 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution

  • Tables

  • 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients

  • Figures

  • 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals

  • 2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk Factors

  • 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors

  • 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart
Author: Mr. Prakash Kannan and Mr. Selim A Elekdag