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Forecasting Inflation in Sudan
Author:
Mr. Kenji Moriyama
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Abdul Naseer
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2009: Issue 132
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Jun 2009
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451872798.001
ISBN:
9781451872798
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
25
Keywords:
WP; price; forecasting inflation
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2009: Issue 132