(I have made no attempt to give a complete literature review, either in the lecture or in this bibliography. Some of the recent articles listed below trace the ideas to the earlier literature.)
Calomiris, C., 2008, “The Subprime Turmoil: What’s Old, What’s New, and What’s Next,” Working paper, presented at Polak Annual Research Conference, November.
Foote, C., K. Gerardi, L. Goette, P. Willen, “Subprime Facts: What (We Think) We Know about the Subprime Crisis and What We Don’t,” Public Policy Discussion Papers, Federal Reserve of Boston.
Global Financial Stability Report, Fall 2008, IMF.
World Economic Outlook, Fall 2008, IMF.
“Munich lecture,” delivered on Nov. 18, 2008. I thank Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Gianni de Nicolo, Hamid Faruqee, Luc Laeven, Krishna Srinivasan, and many others in the IMF Research Department for discussions and help. I thank Ricardo Caballero, Charles Calomiris, Steve Cecchetti, Francesco Giavazzi, Anil Kashyap, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Andrei Shleifer, and Nancy Zimmerman, for discussions along the way. I thank Ioannis Tokatlidis for research assistance.
MIT, NBER, and IMF.
In the interest of full disclosure: This is a first pass by an economist who, until recently, thought of financial intermediation as an issue of relatively little importance for economic fluctuations…
Ironically, the other shock which dominated the news until the financial crisis led to the opposite question: How could the very large increase in oil prices from the early 2000s to mid-2008 have such a small apparent impact on economic activity? After all, similar increases are typically blamed for the very deep recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s. The plausible answer, which I shall not explore in this lecture, but is very much worth exploring, must be that the economy has become less fragile in some dimensions, more fragile in others.
On the relation between property values, mortgages, and foreclosures, read Foote et al 2008.
For an analysis of credit booms and busts over a large number of countries, see Claessens et al .
A point that Charles Calomiris  has called “plausible deniability” (that prices would ever go down).