Front Matter Page
European Department
Authorized for distribution by Ashoka Mody
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Conventional Methods
A. Statical methods
B. Production function approach
III. MV Kalman Filter Approach
IV. Policy Implications of Output Gap Estimates Given by the MV Kalman Filter
V. Conclusions
Figures
1. Output Gap Estimates Based on HP Filter
2. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Growth
3. Output Gap Estimates Based on Production Function
4. Labor Market Developments
5. Current Account Balance
6. Output Gap Estimates Based on Multivariate Kalman Filter
7. Productivity Wage Gap and Output Gap Estimates
8. Productivity Wage Gap and Output Gap Estimates with 1-Year Lag
Tables
1. Full-Employment Labor Input
2. Output Gap Estimates by Conventional Methods
3. Impact of New Factories on Real Output in 2006-08
4. Contributions to Growth, 2003-07
5. Values of Parameters
6. Output Gap Estimates by MV Kalman Approach
7. Economic Imbalance Indicators, 2007-10
References