Front Matter Page
European Department
Authorized for distribution by Jörg Decressin
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Related Literature
III. Models of Inflation
A. DSGE Models
B. Partial Equilibrium Models
C. Empirical Models
IV. Empirical Methods and Data
A. Estimation Techniques
B. Prior Distribution of Parameters for the Bayesian Estimates
C. Forecasting and the Information Content of Money
D. Data
V. Results
A. The Marginal Contribution of Money
B. Comparison of Money-Based Models
C. Comparison Across All Models
VI. Conclusions
Figures
1. Forecast Performance of DSGE Models
2. Forecast Performance of Empirical Models
3. Forecast Performance of P* and Phillips Curve Models
Tables
1. Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Models
References
Appendices
I. Empirical Specifications
II. Bayesian Priors