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Wild or Tamed?: India’s Potential Growth
Author:
Ms. Hiroko Oura
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2007: Issue 224
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Sep 2007
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451867886.001
ISBN:
9781451867886
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
16
Keywords:
WP; GDP; growth rate; India; ratio
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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With India's GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the debate about whether India is overheating revolves mainly about whether growth is above potential-that is, whether the economy is exceeding its "speed limit." This paper attempts to shed light on this debate by providing up-to-date projections of India's potential growth, including by clarifying differences in underlying assumptions used by various researchers that lead to a range of estimates. Estimates of potential growth on this basis range from 7.4 percent to 8.1 percent for 2006/07, and about 8 percent for the medium term. The medium-term potential estimates have risks on both sides: productivity gains and investment could be volatile, but determined reforms could sustain strong productivity growth.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund