Front Matter Page
IMF Institute
Authorized for distribution by Enrica Detragiache
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Model
A. Domestic Households’ Problem
B. Foreign Investors’ Problem
C. Information Structure
III. Quantitative Analysis
A. Computation
B. Calibration
C. Quantitative Findings
D. From Miracles to Crises
E. Turkey vs. U.S
F. Sensitivity Analysis
IV. Conclusion
Tables
1. Magnitudes of Pre-Crisis Booms
2. Model Parameters
3. Long-Run Business Cycle Moments
4. Analysis of Optimism (Pessimism) Driven Booms (Busts)
5. U.S. vs Turkey, Parameters
6. U.S. vs Turkey, Booms and Busts
7. Sensitivity Analysis
Figures
1. Next Period’s Beliefs for Different Values of Current Beliefs
2. Derivative of Belief Evolution Function
3. Forecasting Functions Conditional on Optimism (first column) and Pessimism
4. Sequences of Positive Signals
5. Time Series Simulations for U.S. and Turkey
Appendix
References