Front Matter Page
Fiscal Affairs Department
Contents
Introduction
I. Demographic Trends and Fiscal pressures
II. Key Features of the IMF’s Global Fiscal Model
III. Calibrating The Model
IV. Debt Dynamics And Fiscal Adjustment In Germany
A. Debt Dynamics: Population Aging in Germany and in Trading Partners
B. Fiscal Adjustment in Germany
V. Global Aging and Fiscal Adjustment: International Cooperation?
VI. Reform Complementary?
A. Increasing Labor Participation
B. Higher R&D Spending
C. Higher Product Market Competition
D. Implementation of Lisbon Agenda in Germany and the Euro Area
VII. Summary and Conclusions
Appendix
A. Specification of GFM
References
Tables
1. Key Macroeconomic and Fiscal Variables in the Initial Steady State 1/
2. Germany: Fiscal Variables and Key Parameter Values
3. Germany: Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Strategies: 2006-17 1/
4. Adjustment Strategies in the euro area and the U.S.: 2006-17
5. Net Present Value of GDP of Fiscal Cooperation 1/
6. Sensitivity Analysis of Net Present Value of GDP of Fiscal Cooperation 1/
Figures
1. Germany: Primary Expenditure
2. Effects on German Debt Dynamics of Population Aging in Germany 1/
3: The Effects of Alternative Aging Cost Projections on Debt Dynamics
4: Effects on German Debt Dynamics of Global Population Aging 1/
5. Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Fiscal Adjustment Strategies 1/
6. Debt Dynamics in Germany With Fiscal Adjustment
7: Macroeconomic Effects on Germany of Adjustment Package 1/
8. Effects on Real GDP in Germany of Fiscal Cooperation 1/
8. cont. Effects on Real GDP in the euro area of Fiscal Cooperation
8. cont. Effects on Real GDP in the United States of Fiscal Cooperation
8. cont. Effects on Real GDP of Sequential Stop-and-Go Policies 1/
9: Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Cooperation on Germany 1/
10: Fiscal Cooperation and Higher Labor Participation in Germany 1/
11: Fiscal Cooperation and Higher R&D Spending in Germany 1/
12: Fiscal Cooperation and Product Market Reform in Germany 1/
13: Fiscal Cooperation and the Lisbon Agenda: Effects on Germany 1/
14: Fiscal Cooperation and the Lisbon Agenda: Effects on the euro area 1/
15: Fiscal Cooperation and Delayed and Partial Implementation of the
16: Fiscal Cooperation and Delayed and Partial Implementation of the