Front Matter Page
Asia and Pacific Department
Authorized for distribution by Jahangir Aziz
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Anticipated Risks: Age-Related Fiscal Pressures
III. Unanticipated Risks: Revenue Volatility
A. How Volatile is Hong Kong SAR’s Revenue?
B. How Large Are Fiscal Risks?
IV. Can Policy Choices Limit Fiscal Risks?
A. Introduction of a GST
B. Fixed Investment Returns
V. Conclusion
Appendix: Methodological Issues
References
Box
1. Fiscal Policy in Volatile Environments
Figures
1. Cumulative Fiscal Value at Risk Estimates
2. Fiscal Value at Risk Density Functions