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Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections
Author:
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
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,
Mr. Juan Zalduendonull

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Ms. Manuela Goretti
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Mr. Bikas Joshi
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Mr. Alun H. Thomas
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2007: Issue 070
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Mar 2007
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866346.001
ISBN:
9781451866346
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
44
Keywords:
WP; IMF resource; IMF credit; SDR; time series
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2007: Issue 070