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The author thanks Ms. Daseking and Messrs. Joshi, Berg, Ghosh, Kraay, and Plant for many helpful comments. All remaining errors are the responsibility of the author.
The oil exporting Arab countries were excluded from the chart because budgetary changes are volatile associated with changes in world oil prices.
Gross borrowing is not considered in this paper on the assumption that borrowing is explicitly targeted to specific projects that do not overlap with social expenditures.
The projection is based on maintaining the average annual decline in the child mortality rate over 1990–2003 through 2015.