Front Matter Page
Research Department
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Some Historical Perspective
III. Simple Analytics of Global Interest Rate Determination
A. A Basic Model
B. Other Factors
IV. An Asset-Pricing Perspective
V. Econometric Evidence
VI. Conclusions
Appendix
I. Theoretical Framework
A. Effects of Lower Expected Productivity
B. Oil Shocks
C. Time-Preference Shocks
References
Tables
1. Long-Term Real Interest Rates and Real GDP Growth Rates
2. Implicit Equilibrium Real Interest Rate
3. Global Real Interest Rate: ARDL Estimates
Figures
1. United States’ 10-Year Bond Rate
2. Advanced World’s Long Real Interest Rate
3. Individual Countries’ Real Long Interest Rate
4. The Yield Gap Between 10-Year and 3-Month Government Bonds
5. G-8 Averages of Long-Term Interest Rates and the Yield Gap
6. The Two-Region World Economy
7a. Public Saving
7b.Share of Fixed Capital Formation in General Government Expenditure in Emerging Markets
8. Fiscal Balances in OECD Advanced Economies
9. Global Long-Term Interest Rate: Actual and Model-Fitted Values