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Economic Transformation, Population Growth, and the Long-Run World Income Distribution
Author:
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
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Mr. Michael R Kremer
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2006: Issue 021
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Jan 2006
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451862812.001
ISBN:
9781451862812
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
20
Keywords:
WP; small country; Population; growth; economic development; international trade; export opportunity; developing country labor; transaction cost; growth response; advanced country; growth determinant; Population growth; Migration; Personal income; Demographic change; Global
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper considers the long-run evolution of the world economy in a model where countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve trade opportunities for the remaining developing countries. Whether or not the world economy converges to widespread prosperity depends on the population growth differential between developing and advanced economies, the rate at which countries develop, and potentially on initial conditions. A calibration using historical data suggests that the long-run prospects for lagging developing regions, such as Africa, likely hinge on the sufficiently rapid development of China and India.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund