Cover IMF Working Papers
Buy Book in Print
The Global Impact of Demographic Change
Author:
Mr. Tim Callen
Search for other papers by Mr. Tim Callen in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
,
Warwick J. McKibbin null

Search for other papers by Warwick J. McKibbin in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
, and
Nicoletta Batini
Search for other papers by Nicoletta Batini in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2006: Issue 009
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Jan 2006
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451862690.001
ISBN:
9781451862690
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
36
Keywords:
WP; developing country region; growth rate; risk premium; exchange rate; demographics; capital flows; saving; investment; developing country GDP; physical capital; output ratio; developing country goods; developing country bloc; baseline GDP; world GDP growth; developing country current account; labor resources; Demographic change; Aging; Population growth; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Middle East; East Africa; Europe
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (459.9 KB) Download Epub
The world is in the midst of a major demographic transition. This paper examines the implications of such transition over the next 80 years for Japan, the United States, other industrial countries, and the developing regions of the world using a dynamic intertemporal general equilibrium four-country model containing demographics calibrated to the "medium variant" of the United Nations population projections. We find that population aging in industrial countries will reduce aggregate growth in these regions over time, but should boost growth in developing countries over the next 20-30 years, as the relative size of their workingage populations increases. Demographic change will also affect saving, investment, and capital flows, implying changes in global trade balances and asset prices. We also explore the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about future productivity growth and country external risk for the developing country region.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund