Front Matter Page
Policy Development and Review Department
Authorized for distribution by Atish Ghosh
Contents
I. Motivation
II. Review of the Literature
III. Methodology and Results
A. Empirical Framework
B. Econometric Methodology
C. Data
D. Econometric Implementation and Results
IV. Growth Equations versus Conditional Forecasts by IMF Staff
V. Concluding Remarks
Text Tables
1. Average Annual Growth Rates in Real GDP
2. Alternative Estimation Methods
3. Main Estimation Results
4. Descriptive Statistics for 1981-2000
5. Estimation Results in Models with Human Capital
6. Rules for Defining the Values of Right-Hand-Side Variables
7. Biases of Model and Fund Projections
8. Theil U Statistic: Model and Fund Projections with Barro-Lee Human Capital Data
9. Theil U Statistic: Model and Fund Projections with Secondary School Enrollment Rates
10. Bias and Theil U in Countries with and without a Fund Arrangement
Text Figures
1. Evidence of Absolute and Conditional Convergence
Appendix
Data Appendix
Apendix Table
A1. List of Countries Included in Out-of-Sample Projections
References