Cover IMF Working Papers
Buy Book in Print
Can the IMF's Medium-Term Growth Projections Be Improved?
Author:
Mr. Juan Zalduendo null

Search for other papers by Mr. Juan Zalduendo in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
and
Ms. Catia Batista
Search for other papers by Ms. Catia Batista in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2004: Issue 203
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Oct 2004
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451874488.001
ISBN:
9781451874488
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
31
Keywords:
WP; growth rate; country; IMF staff; Model estimation; forecasting; growth; threshold effect; inflation country; coefficient estimate; state condition; IMF staff medium-term projection; IMF's work; inflation level; benchmark country; one-time factor; terms of trade growth rate; Human capital; Inflation; Personal income; Fiscal stance; Middle East
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (222.1 KB) Download Epub
Numerous reports have noted that the IMF's medium-term growth projections are overly optimistic, raising questions as to how these can be improved. To this end, we estimate a growth model and examine its out-of-sample forecasting properties relative to those of IMF projections. The model's projections outperform those of the IMF in all regions and among most income groups-projections are less biased (one-quarter of the IMF bias) and have smaller standard errors (20 percent lower root mean squared errors) even after controlling for the IMF's macroeconomic assumptions. The paper does not attempt to address the criticisms that have been leveled against the empirical growth literature, but the results suggest that benefits can be derived from bringing systematic analysis to bear on cross-country information.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund