Front Matter Page
Monetary and Financial Systems Department
Authorized for distribution by Mark Swinburne
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Use of Financial Soundness Indicators
A. Judgmental Use of FSIs
B. Signaling Models
C. Logit, Probit, and Discriminant Models
D. Forecasts of Volatility
III. Stress Tests
A. Individual Shocks and Balance Sheet Adjustments
B. Aggregate Shocks and Correlated Shocks
C. Interbank Contagion
D. Impact of Deterioration of Corporate and Household Balance Sheets
IV. Model-Based Financial Forecasts
A. Use of Macroeconomic Forecasts as Inputs
B. Early Warning of Exchange Rate Crises
V. Quantitative Assessment: An Integrated Approach
A. Early Warning Systems for Financial Institution Failure (EWS-FI)
B. Financial System or Financial Institution Forecasts
C. Stress Tests
D. Refinements
E. Early Warning Systems for Exchange Market Pressure (EWS-ER)
VI. Conclusion
Appendix
Selected Financial Stability Reports
References