Front Matter Page
Policy Development and Review Department
Authorized for distribution by Marianne Schulze-Ghattas
Contents
I. Introduction: Fiscal Policy Surveillance in the CEMAC Zone
II. The Analytical Framework
III. Controlling for the Volatility in Petroleum Prices
IV. Saving Oil Wealth for Future Generations
V. Evaluating Fiscal Surveillance in the CEMAC Zone
VI. Summary and Conclusion
References
Tables
1. The Importance of Oil for Selected CEMAC Countries
2. CEMAC: Basic Fiscal Balances, 1994–2002
3. Correlation Between Oil and Non-Oil GDP
4. Maximum Effect of a 10-percent Increase in Oil GDP on the Non-Oil Balance
5. Specifications for Brent-Based Oil Revenue Collection Ratio Ï•
6. CEMAC: Alternative Targets for the Non-Oil Balance
7. Republic of Congo: Long-Term Sustainability Target with Different Real Discount Rates
8. CEMAC: Fiscal Performance Relative to Alternative Targets
Figures
1. Brent Petroleum Price
2. CFA Franc/U.S. dollar Exchange Rate
3. Oil-Revenue-Collection Ratios
4. The Evolution of Petroleum Production