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Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators: An Application to Jordan
Author:
Mr. Joannes Mongardini
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Tahsin Saadi Sedik
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2003: Issue 170
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Aug 2003
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451858440.001
ISBN:
9781451858440
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
32
Keywords:
WP; leading indicator; economic activity; composite index; Jordan; coincident indicators; leading indicators; Jordanian dinar; composite index of leading economic indicators; confidence interval; adjusted leading indicators; OECD methodology; composite indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators; leading indicators of economic activity; share price; Cyclical indicators; Business cycles; Industrial production; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Production index; Global
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in part the lack of sufficient historical data to determine the reliability of these indicators. This paper presents an econometric approach to deriving composite indexes of coincident and leading indicators for a small open economy, Jordan. The results show that, even with limited monthly observations, it is possible to establish meaningful economic and statistically significant relations between indicators from different sectors of the economy and the present and future direction of economic activity.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund