Front Matter Page
European I Department
Authorized for distribution by Robert Ford
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Measuring the Cycle
A. Definition of Cycle
B. Cycle Characteristics
III. Concordance and Synchronization
IV. A Common Component Model
A. The Model
B. Empirical Results
V. Summary and Policy Implications
Tables
1. Business Cycle Characteristics
2. Concordance, Correlation and t-Statistics
3. Elliot, Rothenberg, and Stock Test for Unit Root Statistics
4. Estimated Single-Index Model of Common Global Component in Real GDP
5. Marginal Significance Levels of Diagnostic Test for Single-Index Model of Global Common Component
6. Estimated Single-Index Model of Regional Common Component in Real GDP
7. Marginal Significance Levels of Diagnostic Test for Single-Index Model of Regional Common Component
Figures
1. Turning Points of Real GDP
2. Idiosyncratic Factors of Real GDP
References