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Will there Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa b+L2280y the Year 2020?
Author:
Mr. Jean-Claude Berthélemy null

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and
Mr. Ludvig Söderling null

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2002: Issue 131
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Aug 2002
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451855296.001
ISBN:
9781451855296
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
37
Keywords:
WP; terms of trade; Africa; growth; productivity; education; labor reallocation; diversification; reallocation effect; GDP ratio; CFA franc; production function; productivity gain; growth scenario; reallocation openness; diversification index; TFP gain; diversification gain; Cote d'Ivoire II; Human capital; Total factor productivity; Exports; Sub-Saharan Africa
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor reallocation and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach "Asian tiger" levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund