Measuring Statistical Capacity Building: A Logical Framework Approach

Contributor Notes

Author’s E-Mail Address: skhawaja@imf.org; tmorrison@imf.org

This paper suggests a way forward in the effort to measure statistical capacity building by combining features of two tools – the Project Management System, a logical framework methodology that the IMF Statistics Department uses to plan, monitor, and evaluate technical assistance projects, and the Data Quality Assessment Framework, a methodology for assessing data quality that brings together best practices and internationally accepted concepts and definitions in statistics

Abstract

This paper suggests a way forward in the effort to measure statistical capacity building by combining features of two tools – the Project Management System, a logical framework methodology that the IMF Statistics Department uses to plan, monitor, and evaluate technical assistance projects, and the Data Quality Assessment Framework, a methodology for assessing data quality that brings together best practices and internationally accepted concepts and definitions in statistics

I. Introduction

A core activity of the IMF is the provision of economic policy advice to its member countries. Recognizing that a key requirement of economic policy decisions is a sound and reliable economic database, the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) has provided substantial technical assistance (TA) to member countries over the last several decades. During the 1990’s, the delivery of TA reached a level of almost 200 missions to over 100 countries per year, and this level is expected to continue or increase in the years ahead.

Given the amount of resources being devoted to statistical capacity building and the importance of the effort in terms of supporting sound economic policy making, it is appropriate to take stock and assess progress achieved. Yet, as is well known in the world of aid donors, the measurement of progress in capacity building projects has always been challenging, compared for example to industrial production or infrastructure projects.

This paper proposes a way forward in the effort to measure statistical capacity building by combining features of two tools—(1) the Project Management System (PMS), a logical framework methodology STA uses to plan, monitor, and evaluate TA projects, and (2) the Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF), a methodology for assessing data quality that brings together best practices and internationally accepted concepts and definitions in statistics. The next section of the paper, Section II, provides a brief description of STA’s technical assistance program and of the basic features of the PMS and the DQAF. This is followed by Sections III and IV that present a way of combining features of the PMS and DQAF that provides a dynamic tool for measuring statistical capacity building over time. The conclusions are given in the final Section V

II. STA Technical Assistance

Technical assistance in statistics provided by STA is designed to help national authorities develop and maintain high-quality macroeconomic databases suitable for publication and analysis and for formulating, implementing, and monitoring national economic policy. The TA is provided by missions visiting national statistical offices, central banks and finance ministries, supported by short- and long-term experts assigned to selected member countries, and training courses held in Washington and overseas locations. The core areas of TA are balance of payments, government finance, money and banking, and national accounts and price statistics. In all areas, TA is designed to improve the collection, compilation, and dissemination of official statistics. In addition to providing assessments of methodological soundness, accuracy, coverage, and timeliness, TA missions provide training to enhance the skills of officials responsible for the compilation and dissemination of official macroeconomic statistics, and develop with the authorities medium-term action plans to strengthen statistical systems.

Missions may pay particular attention to assisting countries in their efforts to comply with the requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) or to participate in the General Data Dissemination Standard (GDDS).2 The SDDS was established in 1996 to guide members that have, or that might seek, access to international capital markets in the provision of their economic and financial data to the public. The GDDS, which is intended to guide all members of the IMF and forms the other tier of the IMF’s data dissemination standards, was established in 1997. Both the SDDS and GDDS are designed to enhance the availability of timely and comprehensive statistics and, therefore, to contribute to the pursuit of sound macroeconomic policies and an improved functioning of financial markets.

The TA provided by STA consists increasingly of capacity building with only a relatively small proportion of TA emanating from requests for short-term help in resolving data issues related to Fund programs. The types of statistical capacity building include both human capacities built through knowledge and skills transfer and institutional capacities strengthened through organizational and methodology-related advice.

A. STA’s Project Management System

Before the Project Management System (PMS) was introduced in May 2000, the planning of TA projects was done by means of briefing papers that varied widely in structure and content, and the monitoring and evaluation of TA was done through progress reports requested from country authorities in the transmittal letters accompanying final TA reports, follow-up missions that reported on implementation of recommendations of previous missions, feedback received at the Annual Meetings of the Fund, feedback from area departments and resident representatives, monthly reports and occasional inspection visits for long-term experts, and project assessments required for certain externally financed projects. These procedures enabled STA to have a broad idea of the content and implementation status of projects across a large number of countries, but the planning and organization of projects was uneven and often too vague with respect to project objectives and the means to achieve these objectives, and monitoring and evaluation were rather ad hoc and not systematic enough to follow up effectively on many projects.

The PMS was introduced to ensure that TA in statistics is appropriately structured to meet the needs of the recipient country and that resources are used efficiently. The PMS encompasses all phases of the project cycle, providing a framework to strengthen the planning, monitoring and evaluation of TA. The PMS uses a ‘logical framework’ approach for defining activities with clear linkages between activities and expected outcomes (presented in a matrix format).

At the core of the PMS and the logical framework is a matrix, the Project Framework Summary (PFS), that is prepared at the start of each project. The matrix lists project objectives, purposes, outputs, and inputs on the vertical scale, and relates each of these on the horizontal scale to measurable and verifiable indicators (including timing), means/sources of verification, and important assumptions and external factors that should be taken into account in implementing the project. The results of the project are reported in the End of Project Evaluation Report by STA staff or experts involved in the project. A questionnaire is also sent to the country authorities, Progress Report on Technical Assistance, which incorporates the key items in the Evaluation Report completed by staff/experts so that a comparison can be drawn between the views of staff/experts and the authorities.3 Together with the Project Information Sheet, these documents constitute the PMS. In addition, for major country projects, country project managers are named to serve as main contact points with area departments and country authorities.

The value of the PMS approach stems from identifying factors believed essential to ensure the effectiveness of the project. In planning a project, objectives have to be specific and detailed, causality links between inputs and outputs have to be identified, and the assumptions underlying the expected causality have to be spelled out. Moreover, there is an explicit accounting for risks that inputs might not have the expected effects. The logical framework facilitates subsequent monitoring and evaluation because it records the logical and sequential steps needed to track project implementation and identify the lessons learned when implementation falls short.

B. The Data Quality Assessment Framework

A gap in STA’s technical assistance program, and indeed also in the PMS, has been the lack of a comprehensive and consistent framework to assess data quality. An effort has been made by STA in recent years to fill this gap and develop such a framework for assessing data quality. In developing the framework, STA consulted with national statisticians, experts from international organizations, IMF staff, and data users outside the IMF. The resulting Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) is a methodology that comprises a generic assessment framework and dataset-specific assessment frameworks for the main aggregates used for macroeconomic analysis.4 The generic framework, which brings together the internationally accepted core principles/standards/best practices for official statistics, serves as the umbrella under which the dataset-specific quality assessment frameworks are developed.

The framework follows a cascading structure that flows from five main dimensions of quality and a set of prerequisites for the assessment of data quality. These dimensions are integrity, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, serviceability, and accessibility. The coverage of these dimensions recognizes that data quality encompasses characteristics related to the institution or system behind the production of the data as well as characteristics of the individual data product. Within this framework, each dimension comprises a number of elements (or indicators), which are in turn associated with a set of best practices.

III. Measuring Statistical Capacity Building

The Project Framework Summary matrix of the PMS theoretically provides a tool to measure, at least partially, statistical capacity building through its use of targeted and timed “measurable indicators of implementation” each of which is lined up with “objectives/areas of activity” on the vertical scale. In practice, however, project objectives and activities are specified in a non-uniform and piecemeal fashion, leading to similar shortcomings in the way measurable indicators are tracked and measured. In order to increase the capability of the PMS to track and measure capacity building in a consistent and comprehensive manner, the five DQAF dimensions (plus prerequisites of quality) could be used as the objectives/activities in the first column of the PFS. Then, the DQAF elements associated with each dimension serve nicely as the measurable indicators of implementation in the second column of the PFS.

An example of such a modified PFS is presented in Table 1. While the modified PFS can be applied to any dataset, it is applied in Table 1 for illustrative purposes to national accounts for a hypothetical country. The table is first prepared during the design stage of the project following an assessment of the selected statistics (in this case the national accounts) according to the dimensions and elements of the DQAF. The results are then recorded in the PFS column “status at start” according to the following scale: practice not observed (NO), largely not observed (LNO), largely observed (LO), and observed (O), work under progress (U), and non applicability or non availability of the information (NA). The status rating with respect to each DQAF element has been defined and tested for consistency across a range of countries in Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSCs).5 Where the current status is different from “observed” the main issues that need to be addressed in order to reach the “observed” status are listed in the final column of the PFS.

Table 1:

The Project Framework Summary with DQAF structure

The Project Framework Summary (PFS) should be completed at the start of the project (non-shaded columns) using appropriate codes indicated in footnootes, typically during a mission that proposes/agrees or intiates a project. The report of the mission proposing/agreeing or initiating the project should include the PFS, which is updated during subsequent missions.

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The initial assessment or “status at start” provides the basis for planning further TA by identifying the weak areas and the corresponding measures required to address them (the individual measures and action plan are detailed in the accompanying report of the mission). A specific project may not focus on all items needing improvement, but often only on a subset that will be outlined in the action plan. For example, another donor might be covering a particular subset, such as institutional reform of the statistical office, while STA may be focusing on the major areas in need of methodological improvement.

The three columns of the PFS dealing with “time frame/milestones” summarize the action plan using the 6-point scale to identify the targets to be reached at various stages of the project. More of these columns can be added if necessary. The tracking of progress with respect to these milestones constitutes the dynamic measurement of statistical capacity building over time. While not a precise quantitative measurement, the ratings for each element have been defined and tested across a range of countries to provide a good indication of progress in the different areas. At the stage of each milestone, an assessment is required upon which a judgment can be made whether the targeted progress has been achieved. These assessments are necessary for adequate project monitoring and the results would be reflected by adjustments to the PFS, particularly in the last column dealing with issues that remain to be addressed to achieve “observed” status.

For illustrative purposes consider the proposed improvements in methodological soundness. A reading of the situation in October 2001 constitutes effectively a monitoring of how the reforms proceeded. Striking improvements were made in respect of two activities, concepts and definitions, and scope, where the country was by then fully ‘observing’ good practices. On the other hand, there were no improvements in respect of the other two activities listed in this area, classification/sectorization and basis for recording. A snapshot reading to come in August 2002 and April 2003 will show to what extent the country is still lagging not only in the areas where technical assistance was provided, but also elsewhere in the system.

IV. Evaluation of Projects

Incorporation of the DQAF elements into the evaluation matrices of the PMS can also improve the consistency and comparability of the evaluation exercise once projects are completed. On the basis of PMS evaluation questionnaires for 20 country projects that were completed recently by both project staff and country authorities, the results in terms of achievement and sustainability of the projects were lined up according to the DQAF elements (see Table 2). The table itself demonstrates the additional power that the incorporation of the DQAF contributes to the PMS methodology. Without the DQAF framework on the vertical scale, it would not be possible to sum up project evaluation results, as the original PMS evaluation questionnaires generated a wide variety of objectives and activities on the vertical scale that were not amenable to aggregation or overall interpretation.

Table 2:

Evaluation of STA projects by country authorities and STA Staff

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Note:Progress ratings are on a scale of 1-5 as follows (figures in parenthesis are number of projects):Achievement/Sustainability scale:5 –fully achieved/permanently sustainable 4 – largely achieved/sustainable over the medium to long term3–partially achieved/sustainable over the medium term 1– not or minimally achieved/not or minimally sust.2 –achieved to a limited extent/sustainable over the short to medium termRatings are by country authorities. Figures in italics are ratings by STA staffOverall ratings are averages of aggregate ratings weighted by the number ofproject missions

objectives are classified according (2–digit level) of the Fund’s DQAF

To illustrate the usefulness of this approach for evaluation in STA, the following observations/conclusions could be drawn from the results presented in Table 2. Overall assessment of TA by country authorities and by STA staff is fairly high (4 and above on a scale of 1-5). Staff estimates for sustainability are lower than their own estimates for achievement. One possibility for the lower rating for sustainability of projects may be the relatively light focus of STA projects on the pre-requisites of quality compared to the other DQAF elements, which is clearly shown in Table 2. The distribution of DQAF objectives/activities of the 20 projects reveals that STA’s TA is heavily focused on specific aspects of methodological soundness and accuracy and accessibility, while the pre-requisites of quality that provide underpinning for sustaining statistical reform (e.g., institutional, legal, and resource aspects) received less attention. This is an example of the type of lessons learned that can be derived from an improved DQAF-based PMS that has the power to aggregate project evaluation results across TA projects of different topics and countries in different regions and levels of economic development. STA will take these lessons into account in the design of its TA projects in the future.

V. Conclusion

In summary, the incorporation of the DQAF framework into the PMS logical framework methodology empowers the planning, monitoring, and evaluation of STA’s TA projects because (i) it addresses all aspects of a dataset, including institutional aspects, and the processes and the output related to the dataset; (ii) it brings together internationally accepted standards and codes of good practices and is applicable across a range of datasets; (iii) as an evenhanded tool of assessment it is adaptable to a diverse range of countries that comprise the IMF’s membership; (iv) it highlights the vulnerabilities of the system and facilitates the identification of the TA interventions and the development of an action plan; and (v) it provides the common basis for harmonizing the planning, monitoring and evaluation of TA projects.6

With the DQAF as the main structural feature of the PMS, TA in the future will be planned, monitored and evaluated uniformly for all topical areas within the balanced framework of the five functional standards derived from the DQAF. The five functional standards are: (i) the statistical system should have a supportive environment; (ii) it should adhere firmly to the principle of objectivity in the collection, compilation, and dissemination of statistics; (iii) it should ensure methodological soundness and accuracy and reliability of the statistics produced; (iv) it should ensure that the data are produced and disseminated in a timely fashion; and (v) it should ensure that the data and metadata are easily available. A DQAF-based PMS will ensure that none of these functional standards are unduly neglected in individual TA projects.

References

  • Carson, S. Carol and Claire Liuksila (2001), “Further steps Toward a Framework for Assessing Data Quality,” paper presented at the International Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, May 14-15, 2001, Stockholm (Sweden).

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  • IMF, Statistics Department (2000), Technical Assistance Manual (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

  • IMF, Statistics Department, (1998), “Guide to the Data Dissemination Standards. Module 2: The General Data Dissemination System,” (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

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  • IMF, Statistics Department, (1996), “Guide to the Data Dissemination Standards. Module 1: The Special Data Dissemination System,” (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

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1

Sarmad Khawaja and Thomas Morrison are Senior Economist and Advisor in the Statistics Department. An earlier draft of this paper was presented at a meeting of the PARIS21 Task Team on Statistical Capacity Indicators, Washington, D.C., May 25, 2001. The paper has benefited from comments by Carol Carson, Lucie Laliberte, and members of the aforementioned Task Team.

2

For more information on the data dissemination standards, see IMF (1998) and (1996) and the data dissemination bulletin board on the IMF’s website at http://dsbb.imf.org.

3

For more information on the PMS, see IMF (2000).

4

For information on the DQAF see, for example, Carson (2001).

5

For more information on the ROSCs see the IMF’s website at http://www.imf.org.

6

In fact, the present aggregate analysis of the TA would not be possible without using the DQAF. To compile Table 2, the information provided in the PFS was ‘mapped’ to the DQAF dimensions.

7

Objectives/activities are designed to ensure that by the end of the project the guidelines/good practices recommended by the DQAF are ‘Observed’ or ‘Largely Observed’.

8

The status of statistics at the time of preparing the PFS is determined in collaboration with the authorities using the scale in footnote below.

9

Indicates the expected level of observance of DQAF guide lines/good practices that would be achieved by implementing the mission’s recommendations. The Timeframe/Milestones for implementing the DQAF guidelines/good practices is agreed with the authorities using the following scale: O– Practice observed; LO - Practice largely observed; LNO - Practice largely not observed NO - Not observed; U- Work under progress; NA - Information not available

Measuring Statistical Capacity Building: A Logical Framework Approach
Author: Mr. Thomas K. Morrison and Mr. Sarmad Khawaja