Front Matter Page
Middle Eastern Department
Authorized for distribution by Klaus Enders
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Trade Patterns in the Mashreq
III. Model specification and Normal levels of trade in the Mashreq
A. Standard Gravity Model
B. Explaining Low Levels of Trade in the Mashreq: An Augmented Specification of the Gravity Model
IV. “Normal Levels of Trade” in the Mashreq
A. Exchange Rate, Trade Restrictions, and Political Risk: Where Does the Mashreq Stand?
B. Assessing Levels of International Trade in the Mashreq
C. Israel and Low Levels of Intra-Regional Trade
D. Limits and Qualification of the Results
V. Conclusion
Bibliography
Text Tables
1. Mashreq and Comparators: Global Trade Indicators
2. Intra-Regional Trade in the Mashreq region
3. Estimates for the Augmented Specification
4. Sample Averages and Mashreq values on Control Variables
5. Mashreq and Comparator Countries: Trade Restrictions, 1999
6. Estimates for the Augmented Specification with Mashreq Dummies
7. Estimates for the Augmented Specification with Mashreq Dummies Excluding Israel
8. Trade Intensity Index for Exports in the Mashreq
9. Comparison: Expected vs. Real Intra-Regional Exports
10. Trade in Oil in the Mashreq
Appendices
I. Estimates for Individual Years, Excluding Regional Dummies
II. Estimates for Individual Years, Including Mashreq Dummy Variables
III. Countries Included in the Gravity Model Sample