Front Matter
Author:
Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers
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,
Ms. Lisbeth S Zacho
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Mr. Qin Lei
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Front Matter Page

Monetary and Exchange Affairs Department

Authorized for distribution by Alfredo M. Leone

Contents

  • I. Introduction

  • II. The Functioning of Real Estate Markets and the Role of Banks

    • A. Main Determinants of Real Estate Prices

    • B. Real Estate Cycles and Bubbles

    • C. Risks of Overexposure

  • III. Empirical Evidence

    • A. Data Issues

    • B. Financial Distress Preceded by a Collapse in Real Estate Prices

    • C. Country Experiences

    • D. Real Estate Cycles in an Environment of Sound Banking Systems

    • E. A Probit-Logit Model for Financial Sector Distress

  • IV. Concluding Remarks

  • Bibliography

  • Text tables

  • 1. Timing of Banking Sector Distress

  • 2. Length and Magnitude of Real Estate Price Falls

  • 3. Estimation Results Using a Probit Model

  • 4. Estimation Results Using a Logit Model

  • 5. Goodness of fit of the Estimations Based on the Probit and Logit Model

  • Figures

  • 1. Residential Property Prices in 11 Selected Cases

  • 2. Commercial Property Prices in 7 Selected Cases

  • 3. Average Real Estate Prices and Banking Sector Distress

  • 4. Real Estate Stock Prices and Banking Sector Distress

  • 5. Property Prices and Real Credit Growth—Finland and Sweden

  • 6. Property Prices and Real Credit Growth—Japan

  • 7. Property Prices and Real Credit Growth—Thailand and Malaysia

  • 8. Exposure to Real Estate and Construction—Thailand and Malaysia

  • 9. Property Prices and Real Credit Growth—Mexico

  • 10. Property Prices and Real Credit Growth—Spain, Canada, Ireland, and the Netherlands

  • 11. Property Prices and Real Credit Growth—Singapore and Hong Kong SAR

  • 12. Exposure to Real Estate and Construction—Singapore and Hong Kong SAR

  • Collapse
  • Expand
Real Estate Market Developments and Financal Sector Soundness
Author:
Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers
,
Ms. Lisbeth S Zacho
, and
Mr. Qin Lei